EFM arrives at a moment when the global film and television business is no longer in freefall, but it is no longer forgiving either; it has found its floor. Commissioning remains at roughly three-quarters of peak-TV highs. Streamer spending continues, but without the frenzy of prior years. Europe’s broadcasters remain constrained. The result is not contraction, but constraint.
The European Film Market (EFM) returns to Berlin February 12–18, 2026, and this year’s message is unusually clear: the business isn’t “back” in any nostalgic sense—but it is moving, and in more directions than it has in the past two years. EFM’s expanded 2026 programme is a signal about where business development is headed.
As Sundance wrapped with more films seeking homes than landing deals, and EFM looms as the first major sales test of the year, the question is no longer who has the best film, but who is best aligned with today’s market. 2026 will reward scale, discipline, and precision, and punish nostalgia for a business that no longer exists.
The 2025 film markets delivered a consistent message across continents and calendars. Sundance tested demand. Cannes refined presales. TIFF amplified select winners. AFM clarified the new floor. Together, they confirmed that the industry is not rebounding to its old shape. It is stabilizing at a smaller, more disciplined scale. Fewer films will move. Fewer territories will matter. Fewer buyers will decide outcomes.
Hollywood spent 2025 pretending it was in a cyclical downturn. It is not. The business is reorganizing under a harsher premise: fewer buyers, fewer viable windows, and less tolerance for anything that doesn’t behave like a franchise asset. The result is an ineluctable narrowing of the market—one that punishes independents, rewards scale, and converts distribution into a political and financial instrument as much as a commercial one.
Hollywood is no longer shaped by audience demand but by competing political blocs and foreign capital. Netflix’s $82.7 billion bid for Warner Bros. triggered immediate scrutiny, with President Trump signaling he would “be involved” as regulators examine the streamer’s expanding market power. Within hours, Paramount, backed by Larry Ellison, RedBird, Gulf sovereign funds, and Jared Kushner, countered with a hostile $77.9 billion all-cash bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery is barreling toward its fourth ownership change in seven years, a span marked by extraordinary value destruction, unchecked executive churn, and an industry unwilling—or unable—to confront the structural failures hollowing out the U.S. media sector. Instead of stabilizing long-term businesses, these megadeals have become vehicles for a handful of executives, financiers, and political allies to trade century-old cultural institutions like poker chips.
As the American Film Market wrapped at the Fairmont Century Plaza, the prevailing sentiment was unmistakable: relief. After four locations in four years—Santa Monica, virtual, Las Vegas—the independent business finally had a market that functioned, flowed, and felt worthy of the work being done inside it.
This year’s AFM slate is unusually dense, featuring high-profile packages, prestige breakouts, and ambitious commercial plays across genres, drama, and franchise-adjacent concepts. To help readers track the projects driving the most conversation—across sellers, buyers, agencies, and financiers—we’ve compiled a curated list of the 50 packages dominating meetings and hallway chatter.
The global independent film market has entered a period of hard correction. The number of buyers has contracted, advances are smaller, and even strong festival premieres are taking longer to close. What was once an expansive network of territorial sales has narrowed into a handful of dependable regions and a few genres that still command premiums.
What was sold as a revitalization appears to many, both inside and outside the company, as a high-risk restructuring that may strip Paramount of the very assets that once justified the deal. The comparison made by several veterans suggests that this has the makings of another Bronfman-era playbook: big promises, bigger checks, and a costly pursuit of scale that can leave the core business weaker.
When the cinema lights go down and the credits roll, it becomes clear that the major studio theatrical business is no longer a reliable growth engine. Yes, the occasional billion-dollar franchise still lands. But beneath the surface lies a shrinking marketplace, fewer wide releases, and an exodus of mid-budget films with nowhere to land.
Skydance, backed by the Ellison family, has just acquired Paramount, and is now eyeing Warner Bros. Discovery for its next takeover. If consummated, the merger would unite some of the most valuable entertainment assets under one roof—streaming platforms, TV networks, movie studios, and sports rights. The combined company would immediately rival Disney and Netflix in scale.
Let’s be blunt: TIFF 50’s low deal count and headline grabs tell the same story: the old model of acquisition excess no longer exists. But that doesn’t mean distribution is dead; it means it’s being refined. The more brutal, quieter truth is this: many films failed to get deals, not because they weren’t good, but because the margins, windows, and risk calculus no longer justify speculative purchasing.
Well into its second week, TIFF 2025 is shaping up less as a buying frenzy and more as a barometer for where the independent business is heading. Deal volume remains lean, but the festival has already produced a $15 million bidding war for a Midnight Madness horror and a seven-figure North American deal for Gus Van Sant’s “Dead Man’s Wire.”
As TIFF celebrates its 50th anniversary, the festival spotlights what might be its most resilient genre amid a fractured marketplace: horror. With shrinking screen counts, compressed Pay-1/Pay-2 deals, and younger ticket buyers pulling away from theaters en masse, horror remains a rare safe-haven—cheap to produce, reliably engaging, and buoyed by fervent word-of-mouth among young theater-goers.
Toronto’s 50th anniversary edition arrives with independent distributors weighing risk against opportunity. Theatrical remains a tightrope, Pay-1 and Pay-2 license fees are under pressure, and negotiations are slower across the calendar. Yet a sturdier acquisitions slate, a pair of well-capitalized newcomers, and a crop of commercially minded titles suggest TIFF could regain some of its old deal energy.
Roku’s entry into subscription streaming with Howdy is a striking counterpunch in an industry defined by rising prices and dwindling consumer patience. But at $2.99 per month, the economics of ad-free streaming are opaque, and only by pulling back the curtain on SVOD licensing deals can industry players gauge whether such a model is sustainable long term.
In an era of consolidation, contraction, and confusion in Hollywood, Lionsgate and Starz are finally standing on their own two feet. After nearly a decade under the same roof, the two companies have completed a long-delayed split, each charting separate paths in an unforgiving media economy where scale is elusive, profitability is evasive, and the search for suitors is relentless.
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